I’ve mentioned a few times here on my blog that Hillary has already lost, she just doesn’t seem to know it. Today I did the math to see just how bad her situation is. Here’s what I found based on stats found here:
Hillary currently has 1592 delegates. Obama has 1726. The difference between the two is not great, a measly 134 delegates.
Here, however, is the problem. There are a total of 4,435 delegates, (3,640 state, 795 super). There are 9 remaining contests with a total of 408 remaining delegates available. Based on all the polls I can find, Hillary will likely carry WV, Puerto Rico and Kentucky, probably by 10+ point margins. She will probably lose or split the other 6 contests. The result of this is a wash, pretty much. Based on polls, I anticipate Obama finishes the 9 contests with something 212 of the remaining delegates, Hillary with about 196. She could do better and manage an actual 50%, giving her 204 and Barack 204, but that’s probably about as good as she can hope for.
Still, let’s be nice, give her the benefit of the doubt and give her the larger chunk of the split, 212 for Hill, 196 for Barack. Where does this put them going into the convention?
In this scenario, Barack enters the convention with 1922 delegates to Hillary’s 1804. The number needed is 2024. In this scenario, Obama is 102 shy, Hillary is 220 shy. So, how many remaining superdelegates are there? Currently, 299. What percentage of the superdelegate vote would Barack need then to clinch the nomination? 34%, or about 1 in 3. Hillary on the other hand, would need a landslide. 74% of the remaining superdelegates would have to decide to back her. Remember, too, that this is giving her the luxury of winning more delegates in the remaining contests than Obama, something that current polls show to be unlikely. If Obama really comes out at 212 to Hillary’s 196 the math gets even worse. In that case, Obama would be only 86 delegates shy, a mere 29% of the remaining superdelegates. Hillary would be a massive 236 delegates shy, needing 79% of the remaining superdelegates to side with her.
There is no chance that she can get 75-80% of the remaining superdelegates. This thing, my friends, is over.
